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The writer is senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank and has worked extensively in Ukraine during Russia’s full-scale invasion
The Trump administration’s decision to halt US military-technical assistance and the uncertainty around continued intelligence sharing with Kyiv will have consequences that take time to be fully felt. The measures will not cause a rapid deterioration of Ukraine’s ability to resist, but will incur a cost in the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. They also do nothing to shift the strategic calculus for Kyiv, whose reluctance to accept an American deal on any terms reflects the existential stakes for which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is negotiating.
The US has been the biggest single military donor to Ukraine. Over the course of the war, US support has expanded to encompass a broad range of capabilities. America made geospatial imagery available to Kyiv early on in the conflict. The loss of this will significantly reduce the tempo of long-range strikes against the Russian military and the accuracy and effectiveness of strikes against both military and strategic targets. The reduced attrition on Russian forces and infrastructure will not have an immediate impact, but it will allow Russia to accumulate more systems to attack Ukraine nearer its borders over time.
The US has also routinely provided Ukraine with electromagnetic surveys of the battlefield. These are vital for planning medium and long-range drone operations, helping Ukraine to understand the areas and frequencies affected by Russian jamming of navigation and control frequencies. This may have a more immediate impact than the loss of satellite imagery because Ukrainian forces have been using drones to compensate for their disadvantages in artillery and air power. The loss of this data is likely to impinge upon their efficiency.
Another category of assistance that could have been lost so long as intelligence sharing is severed is early warning of Russian long-range strikes. This will reduce the time available for Ukraine to bring its air defences up to readiness. As a result, a higher proportion of Russia’s long-range strikes will reach their targets and Ukraine will expend more air defence interceptors — already in short supply — on trying to defeat its missiles.
The loss of military-technical assistance will also have several results. The US provides a significant proportion of Ukraine’s artillery ammunition and other weapons. The loss of these will not be immediately felt because Ukraine will first draw on reserves. Over time, however, the Ukrainian armed forces will need to ration their rate of fire to reflect whatever volume of supply can be assured by European partners. This will allow Russia to close in on Ukraine’s defences and cause an increase in Ukrainian casualties as well as loss of ground.
A very serious loss will be that of access to maintenance for US weapons. Large portions of Ukraine’s military equipment, from M777 howitzers to armoured vehicles such as the MaxxPro MRAPs, are manufactured by US companies and have spare parts that only they can provide. If Ukraine is cut off from such support — it is not yet clear whether the US will allow Europe to procure spares — the result will be the progressive de-mechanisation of Ukraine’s forces. This would have a major impact by the summer.
The suspension of US assistance comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives. Ukraine’s army has some ability to adjust and, in collaboration with European partners, compensate for deficiencies. The issue for Kyiv is that while little-to-no American support will make the protraction of the conflict more painful, accepting a US deal without any longer-term guarantees risks the eventual subjugation of the country by Russia. Fighting while talking is vital for Ukraine, and US coercion does not change that fact.
Given that Ukraine will keep fighting — potentially in defiance of the US — the risk is that the Trump administration continues to apply leverage. They could next shut down Elon Musk’s satellite-powered internet provider Starlink, seriously disrupting Ukrainian command and control.
The challenge for both Ukraine and its European allies is that it is not clear whether the US president cares about the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline. The Trump administration has made it clear that it wants Europe to manage European security — if the fall of Ukraine brings about this shift, then the US may well see it as a strategic success. The White House may prefer to win plaudits for achieving a peace — albeit on unnecessarily unfavourable terms to Kyiv — but it is equally possible that the US will settle for a Ukrainian defeat, which it will squarely blame on Zelenskyy.
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