White House and EU talk peace and defence

Hello and welcome to the working week.

For many of you the lunar new year celebrations are continuing, but in other parts of the world there are serious summits to be held. I’ve got Nick Lowe’s 1974 hit (What’s So Funny ‘Bout) Peace, Love and Understanding running through my head. Can we find some sign of hope, even laughter, this week?

First off there is the decision of Donald Trump to make Benjamin Netanyahu the first foreign leader to visit him at the White House in his second term. The meeting, due to take place on Tuesday, will mark the first overseas trip by the veteran Israeli leader since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against him last year over allegations of war crimes stemming from the Gaza war. The pair are expected to discuss ways to create a permanent ceasefire in Gaza — no doubt emboldened at how Trump helped swing the current cessation of hostilities — as well as the Iranian nuclear threat and a normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic in Brussels, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will on Monday be having dinner with counterparts from all 27 EU member states for the first time since Brexit happened five years ago — by the way, if you want to know how that great divorce is going for British society, read this.

On the menu on Monday, as well as no doubt some very good wine, pate and seafood, will be discussions about how the UK and its European neighbours can co-operate on defence and security. Starmer will also hold talks with Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte. The UK-EU meeting was convened by the one-time Portuguese prime minister, now European Council president, António Costa, in one of his first acts after taking up the new job. A separate get together to consider other aspects of a “reset” in UK-EU relations, including a possible lowering of trade barriers, is planned for later in the year.

We then come to the possible — but might not happen — news of the week. A federal judge was due on Monday to hear arguments on Trump’s order to pause funding for billions of dollars of federal grants, loans and other financial assistance. The move by the White House had been blocked by a judge, but then Trump appeared to back down, rescinding the memo and leaving the court hearing in limbo. The White House has told the court it believes the restraining order request is now moot, but the plaintiffs disagree. We are now waiting for the plaintiffs to respond.

On the corporate front, we hit peak earnings season this week with more than 120 S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly figures. There is also a very busy schedule of earnings from Asia, especially once the lunar new year holiday periods are over midweek, and Europe.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.50 per cent, while India’s central bank is expected to cut rates by the same amount to 6.25 per cent. Plenty of US and European central bankers are scheduled to speak.

There is a familiar feel to the statistical data run, with the G7 comparator of manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index reports dominating the start of the week, followed by US labour market statistics, along with German orders, production and trade, Japanese wages and household spending data. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

I confess I am not a huge sports fan — possibly due to picking Tottenham Hotspur as a teenager when everyone at my north London school was aligning themselves to football clubs — which is (one of the reasons) why I will not be watching the Super Bowl this Sunday. But I know my colleagues on the (premium subscriber) newsletter Scoreboard will be because this very much fits with their remit of writing about the business of sport. Sign up here.

What are your priorities for the week ahead? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Thames Water’s debt restructuring plan, approved by creditors holding more than 90 per cent of secured debt at meetings last month, is due to be heard in London’s High Court at a sanction hearing

• Canada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB January manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• EU: January Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) inflation estimate

• Results: Central Japan Railway Q3, Clorox Q2, East Japan Railway Q3, Julius Baer FY, Tyson Foods Q1

Tuesday

• UK: Kantar’s February grocery market share and shop price inflation report

• US: December Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLT), factory orders and durable goods orders data

• Results: Alphabet Q4, Ametek Q4, Archer Daniels Midland Q4, BNP Paribas FY, Chipotle Mexican Grill Q4, Crest Nicholson FY, Cummins Q4, Dassault Systèmes Q4, Diageo HY, Electronic Arts Q3, Estée Lauder Q2, Fox Corp Q2, Hubbell Q4, Infineon Technologies Q1, Juniper Networks Q4, KKR Q4, Mattel Q4, Merck Q4, Mitsui 9M/Q3, Mondelez International Q4, Nintendo 9M/Q3, OMV Q4, PayPal Q4, PepsiCo Q4, Pfizer Q4, Snap Q4, Spotify Q4, UBS Q4, Vodafone Q3 trading update, Western Union Q4, Willis Towers Watson Q4, YouGov HY trading statement

Wednesday

• FT International Energy Policy Forum 2025. Speakers including Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, Eva Jensen at the European Environment Agency and Irene Heemskerk, head of the Climate Change Center at the European Central Bank, discuss Europe’s energy transition. Register for free

• Canada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB January services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• China: financial markets reopen after the lunar new year holiday.

• France: December industrial production figures

• US: December trade in goods and services data, plus the monthly ADP Employment Report

• Results: Alfa-Laval Q4, Arm Holdings Q3, Banco Santander FY, Boston Scientific Q4, DCC Q3 trading statement, Ford Motor Company Q4, GSK FY, Jack Henry & Associates Q2, Johnson Controls Q1, KDDI Q3, Match Group Q4, MetLife Q4, News Corp Q2, Nomura Q3, Novo Nordisk FY, Prudential Financial Q4, Qualcomm Q1, SSE Q3 trading statement, Stanley Black & Decker Q4, T Rowe Price Q4, Uber Q4, Disney Q1

Thursday

• Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks at the inaugural BIS Chapultepec Conference in Mexico

• Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK: S&P Global/HCOB January construction purchasing managers’ index data

• Germany: December manufacturing orders data

• UK: Bank of England sets interest rate

• US: Q4 non-farm productivity data

• Results: Amazon Q4, Anglo American Q4 production report, AstraZeneca Q4, BCE Q4, Bristol Myers Squibb Q4, Compass AGM and Q1 update, ConocoPhillips Q4, Eli Lilly Q4, Equifax Q4, Expedia Group Q4, Hershey Q4, Hilton Worldwide Q4, Honeywell Q4, ING Q4, Itochu Q3, Kellanova Q4, Linde Q4, L’Oréal FY, Mitsubishi 9M/Q3, Nikon Q3, Nippon Steel Q3, NTT Data Group Q3, Philip Morris International Q4, Pinterest Q4, Securitas FY, Snap-On Q4, Société Générale Q4, Suzuki Motor Q3, Take-Two Interactive Software Q3, Thomson Reuters Q4, Under Armour Q3, Verisign Q4, Vinci FY, Watches of Switzerland trading update, Yum Brands Q4

Friday

• India: Reserve Bank of India bimonthly rate-setting announcement

• UK: Halifax January House Price Index

• US: January employment report, including the unemployment rate.

• Results: Ashmore Group HY, Banco Sabadell Q4, Danske Bank Q4, Eisai Q3, Mazda Motor Q3, MediaTek Q4, Nippon Telegraph & Telephone 9M/Q3, Skanska FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Belgium: European Council informal retreat to discuss European defence. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is due to attend a working dinner, where he will meet all 27 EU leaders for the first time.

Tuesday

• India: IIC-Bruegel Annual Seminar, a two-day closed-door workshop focusing on key aspects of India-EU relations, begins in New Delhi

• Portugal: 40th birthday of Portuguese footballer Cristiano Ronaldo

• US: President Donald Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House

Wednesday

Thursday

• New Zealand: Waitangi Day national holiday

• South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers annual State of the Nation address to a joint sitting of parliament in Cape Town

• US: New York Fashion Week begins

Friday

• Turks and Caicos Islands: parliamentary elections

• US: 30th Annual Critics Choice Awards, honouring the best in cinematic and televised/streaming achievement, will be held in Santa Monica, California

Saturday

• Canada: seventh Invictus Games, a biennial sporting competition for wounded, injured and sick servicemen and women to introduce them to Paralympic sports and encourage them to stay physically active, funded by the Duke of Sussex’s Royal Foundation. Katy Perry performs at the opening ceremony in Vancouver

• North Korea: Military Foundation Day national holiday

Sunday

• Ecuador: parliamentary and presidential elections

• Kosovo: parliamentary elections

• Liechtenstein: parliamentary elections

• US: Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, with the Kansas City Chiefs competing against the Philadelphia Eagles for the premium American Football crown. Kendrick Lamar will headline the half-time concert