Ross Ulbricht’s Trump Pardon Odds Hit 93% on Polymarket After Elon Musk’s Tweet

The chances of Ross Ulbricht, the convicted founder of the darknet market website Silk Road, being pardoned by United States President Donald Trump during his first week in office just went up by more than 16%.

Data on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket shows Ulbricht has a 93% chance of leaving prison within the next few weeks.

How Ulbricht Ended Up in Jail

The surge in the odds of Trump pardoning Ulbricht came shortly after the American Billionaire Elon Musk commented on an X post about placing the Silk Road founder’s pardon at the top of the president’s executive order stack.

“Ross will be freed too,” Musk stated, implying that Ulbricht would likely be pardoned sooner than later.

In 2013, U.S. authorities arrested Ulbricht on several charges, including running Silk Road, which facilitated sex trafficking and the sale of illegal drugs using bitcoin (BTC), money laundering, drug trafficking, and computer hacking. Activities on Silk Road led to the platform processing more than $1 billion in transactions.

After a two-year legal battle, a U.S. federal court sentenced Ulbricht to two life terms plus 40 years without the possibility of parole. The sentencing sparked controversy in the crypto industry, with many arguing that it was excessively harsh, while others insist that the activities on Silk Road merit the level of punishment given to Ulbricht.

As of 2025, Ulbricht had spent more than a decade in prison, with authorities seizing over $1 billion in BTC from Silk Road’s treasury. The crypto community and over 250 organizations have advocated for Ulbricht’s release. During his campaign, President Donald Trump also promised to pardon the Silk Road founder once he assumed office.

Trump’s Promises

About a month to the end of his former tenure as the U.S. president, Trump reportedly considered pardoning Ulbricht. This was in 2020, and the Silk Road creator had spent about seven years behind bars. Unfortunately, Trump skipped Ulbricht while issuing pardons to other convicts, including his former campaign advisor Steve Bannon and ex-Ripple board member Ken Kurson.

Since the beginning of 2024, Trump has shown support for Ulbricht, making several vows to save the convict and commute his sentence as soon as he takes office. With the president being inaugurated less than 24 hours before this report, how quickly Ulbricht will be pardoned remains to be seen.