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The writer is a fellow at Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence and the Cyber Policy Center. She is the author of ‘The Tech Coup’
When French President Emmanuel Macron called out Elon Musk for building an “international reactionary movement”, he quickly added that France was a “solid ally” of Donald Trump. In reality, the US president-elect is eager to disrupt the norms and institutions that have bound the transatlantic alliance since the second world war.
On issues of consequence — including technology — the US looks set to become an obstacle to work around, rather than a partner to work with. That is especially true now Silicon Valley and Washington are merging. It is time European leaders overcome idle hope and memories of co-operation.
Trump, once a pariah, now welcomes a desperate pilgrimage of American tech leaders. One by one they are falling in line, larding the inauguration fund and flocking to Mar-a-Lago.
Companies anticipate returns on this investment and a reduction in regulation. Microsoft president Brad Smith said on the company’s blog that: “The United States cannot afford to slow its own private sector with heavy-handed regulations.” And it “must focus on exporting American AI”. Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has announced a U-turn on content moderation and compares EU antitrust remedies to tariffs.
Together, Trump and US tech chief executives are likely to threaten European regulation. Take the EU’s 2022 Digital Services Act, which aims to hold digital platforms to account for harmful and illegal content. The European Commission has opened formal proceedings to assess whether X has breached the DSA in areas linked to risk management, content moderation and advertising transparency.
Musk, a close adviser to Trump, has used his X account to promote far-right politicians such as Alice Weidel of the Alternative for Germany party. Asked whether offering his megaphone to candidates could be considered an illegal party donation, a representative for the Bundestag said it was “clarifying the facts”.
The DSA could bring much-needed transparency to this matter. But tech companies not keen to comply will soon be able to lobby Brussels with White House backing. Vice-president-elect JD Vance went so far as to say that the US is willing to leverage security guarantees as a threat to Europe if lawmakers there dare to regulate Musk’s companies. With Nato on the table, regulating X will become a lot trickier.
Everything the EU has been working on for the past five years as a self-declared “super-regulator” will soon be challenged: from its ambitions of greater strategic autonomy to digital sovereignty, improving digital competition and shoring up responsibilities of corporate content moderation. The nascent streamlining between the US and the EU on artificial intelligence governance and antitrust must be considered over. Trump has promised to throw out his predecessor’s AI executive order and prevent any break-up of Google.
The EU will face a tidal wave of pressure just as its ambitious tech regulation takes shape, and it is unclear whether the new enforcement mechanisms can weather the flood. European pharmaceutical sales in the US may well be negotiated against the uptake of US AI products in Europe, or vice versa. That is what people mean when they predict a transactional presidency under Trump. While negotiating the lowering of trade barriers, regulation will be labelled as a “non-tariff barrier” for which Europeans (literally) will be asked to pay a price. Moreover, Trump’s trade policies and industrial nationalism could have far-reaching effects on the EU’s technology landscape. A global tariff war could make it even harder for European companies to build the independent tech infrastructure they seek.
If the Trump administration adopts a combative stance on trade, tech and security, the EU must be prepared to respond. EU leaders must be crystal clear on what can and cannot be negotiated and appreciate the price (or cost) of strategic autonomy. Now is the time to be bold and assess the possibilities for decoupling and lower dependency on US tech companies. But this will require unprecedented political leadership.
For years, the EU has prided itself on being a regulatory powerhouse, creating the world’s most ambitious tech governance. The Trump administration and its new tech CEO allies are ready to test the EU’s resolve. Strategic autonomy is the name of the game. There is no point in nostalgia for an alliance that will change unrecognisably after Trump’s inauguration next week.
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