Zelenskyy in final pitch for US weapons before Trump enters White House

Good morning. A scoop to start: Brussels is conducting a rapid audit of US President Joe Biden’s executive orders and the ramifications if they were to be cancelled, fearing that Donald Trump will reverse decisions affecting Russia sanctions, trade measures and cyber security.

Last night Trump acolyte Elon Musk heaped praise on the “very reasonable” leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in an interview with her on his X social media platform that Brussels is under pressure to investigate for possibly breaching EU digital rules.

Today, I report on Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plea at potentially the last-ever gathering of a US-led group to co-ordinate weapons shipments to Ukraine, and my colleagues consider Slovakia’s threat to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine in a tit-for-tat move linked to Russian gas.

Last stand

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy yesterday made a final plea to the incoming Trump administration not to give up on his country’s defence against Russia, at a meeting that will otherwise be the last gathering of a US-led support group.

Context: The so-called Ramstein Group has met regularly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to co-ordinate weapons supplies to Kyiv. Donald Trump campaigned on a pledge to halt US support to Ukraine and bring a swift end to the conflict, but his intended plan of action remains unclear.

“We’ve come such a long way that it would honestly be crazy to drop the ball now and not keep building on the defence coalitions we’ve created,” Zelenskyy said at the meeting, named for the US air base in Germany where it first met. “Everyone wants to feel sure that their country will not just be erased off the map.”

Outgoing US defence secretary Lloyd Austin used the gathering, attended by around 50 allies of Ukraine, to announce $500mn of fresh military aid.

Formally known as the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, it is unclear if the body will survive Trump’s arrival in the White House. Germany has said it is discussing with other European countries how to maintain its work if the US changes tack.

Zelenskyy said it was “clear a new chapter starts for Europe and the entire world” with Trump’s second term, adding that his allies “will have to co-operate even more, rely even more on one another”.

While the EU and its member states have provided the most financial aid to Ukraine during the war, the US has provided the lion’s share of military aid, and European capitals are not able to replace it.

“If Putin swallows Ukraine, his appetite will only grow,” Austin said. “If we flinch, you can count on Putin to push further and punch harder. Ukraine’s survival is on the line. But so is the security of Europe, the United States, and the world.”

Chart du jour: Climate changed

The world breached 1.5C of warming above the average of the pre-industrial age last year for the first time, as an “extraordinary” spike in temperature suggested climate change is accelerating faster than expected.

Tantrum

Slovakia’s Russia-friendly leader Robert Fico has threatened to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv does not restore a transit contract that delivered Russian gas to Bratislava.

What he may not have appreciated is that it is not as simple as flicking a switch, write Alice Hancock and Raphael Minder.

Context: Kremlin-controlled Gazprom sent gas through Ukraine to the EU under a five-year contract that expired at the end of 2024. Slovakia is the only country supplied with that gas that has not secured alternative flows. It has also lost around €500mn in its own transit fees for piping gas to other parts of Europe.

Fico yesterday aired his concerns in Brussels to the EU’s energy commissioner Dan Joergensen, who has been given the task of presenting a plan on how to eliminate the bloc’s remaining Russian fossil fuels.

The European Commission sent out a measured statement following the meeting saying that there had been a “good and open discussion” and that a “high-level working group” to address Slovakia’s concerns would be established.

In a press conference, Fico said the working group would include EU, Ukrainian and Slovak officials, but he also said he would cut electricity supplies to Ukraine and cut aid to Ukrainian refugees if the transit was not restored.

The electricity threat may not hold much weight, however. Multiple countries could step in to backstop Ukrainian supplies, including Poland, Romania and Germany.

Fico said it could be implemented “immediately”, but it is not straightforward. Halting the flows may require Slovakia sabotaging its own cables, according to one senior diplomat with knowledge of the talks. 

Fico met Russian President Vladimir Putin in December and said he had secured gas supplies. Visiting the Kremlin made him one of just three EU leaders to have done so since February 2022.

What to watch today

1. Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets Italian President Sergio Mattarella in Rome.

2. EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos meets Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski in Warsaw.

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