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Iran’s armed forces have nearly doubled the number of annual winter exercises this year as the Islamic republic seeks to project strength following a series of regional military blows by Israel and the election of Donald Trump in the US.
The spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini, announced on Monday that about 30 land, air and maritime drills had commenced across six western and southern provinces and would continue until mid-March.
These exercises — in joint operations between the ideologically motivated guards and the conventional army — were reportedly designed to counter “new threats”, he said, without providing specifics.
“The number of drills has almost doubled this year compared to last year, in response to the evolving threat landscape,” Naeini told the Financial Times on the sidelines of a press briefing in Tehran. “These exercises are significantly larger in scope and sophistication, featuring new weaponry and expanded participation of brigades engaged in realistic operations.”
As part of the drills, Iranian forces will conduct exercises near the Natanz nuclear facility, a key site for uranium enrichment. The largest maritime exercise is set to take place in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which one-third of the world’s oil supply is shipped. Iran has previously made implicit threats to close the strait in retaliation for measures that could restrict its crude oil exports.
The exercises started shortly before the inauguration this month of Trump, whose return has heightened concerns in Tehran’s political circles.
Members of Trump’s incoming administration have vowed to resume the former president’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran in response to its nuclear programme. During his first term, Trump pulled out of a nuclear deal with Tehran and reimposed sanctions.
Iran is also under mounting strain following a series of blows against the regime and its proxies since conflict erupted in the region after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack on Israel. Israel has battered Hizbollah in Lebanon and exchanged its first direct strikes with Tehran.
While Iranian diplomats have suggested that they are open to fresh negotiations with the new US administration, officials fear that escalating tensions will lead to a broader confrontation, including the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities with US backing.
Iranian officials have sought to project defiance. “The enemy is displaying false enthusiasm while misinterpreting the situation, trying to portray the Islamic republic as weakened,” Naeini told reporters, using a common term used to refer to Israel and the US. “Iran has been preparing for complex, large-scale conflicts and remains confident in its deterrent capabilities.”
The unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, an ally Tehran had supported in its battle against opposition forces, also struck a devastating blow to Iran’s Middle Eastern strategies.
Syria has long been a conduit for Iranian military and financial aid to Hizbollah, and its loss has disrupted Iran’s ability to sustain its “axis of resistance”, which includes Hizbollah, Hamas, Iraqi Shia militias and Yemen’s Houthis.
Additionally, 100,000 members of the Revolutionary Guards’ voluntary Basij militia are expected to march in Tehran this Friday.
“We have considered all possible scenarios and are conducting realistic and proportionate exercises,” Naeini said. “The Islamic republic will not initiate any war in the region but will respond decisively to any threats.”
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